With the 98th Academy Awards just days away, the Best Picture race has narrowed to a two-film showdown. “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” are the favorites, and industry ballots and public polls suggest March 15 could bring a close, unpredictable finish.
Who’s leading and why it matters now
Bookmakers and critics have placed “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” at the front of the pack, making them the odds-on contenders for Best Picture at the Oscars on Sunday, March 15, 2026. The attention matters because tight races often reshape awards-season narratives — boosting post-win box office, awards momentum and next-season prestige for filmmakers and talent.
Inside the ballots: a costume designer’s pick
An anonymous industry ballot published this week by veteran reporter Anne Thompson adds texture to the headlines. A costume designer who contributed an anonymous vote said they favored “One Battle After Another” and named Rose Byrne among their picks. The same voter reported choosing “Sinners” in four categories, admitted they hadn’t seen “F1,” and expressed a strong dislike for director Yorgos Lanthimos — details that illustrate how personal taste and gaps in viewing can shape votes across guild and Academy ranks.
Where other major races stand
Outside Best Picture, most major categories remain open, offering a welcome unpredictability after years of seemingly foregone conclusions. The notable exception is Best Actress: Jessie Buckley has enjoyed a dominant run in precursor awards and industry chatter, making her the clear frontrunner going into the ceremony.
Public reaction and polls
Audience enthusiasm is tracking alongside industry sentiment. A Tom’s Guide readers’ poll that drew more than 4,550 votes showed “Sinners” as a fan favorite, claiming roughly 12% of that sample. Those grassroots indicators matter for social buzz and streaming or theatrical demand should either film win.
What industry insiders expect
Voters and pundits are talking about two possible outcomes: a conventional pick that consolidates awards-season momentum, or a surprise that upends predictions. Anonymous ballots published in recent columns reveal mixed ballots and personal takes that don’t always line up with critics’ consensus — a reminder that Academy voting can be idiosyncratic.
What to watch on March 15
- Best Picture result — will it be “One Battle After Another” or “Sinners”?
- Whether Jessie Buckley converts her precursor wins into Oscar gold.
- Any surprise wins in directing, screenplay or supporting categories that could signal a broader upset.
With producers also previewing show elements — including the return of host Conan O’Brien and event format tweaks — the Oscars promise both spectacle and career-defining moments. Expect vote-led surprises, social-media debates and immediate post-show analysis that will define awards-season headlines into spring.